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world[s88,jmc]		The problems of the world

	This is a survey of the problems facing the world and
what should and should not be done about them.  We begin with
some remarks.

	1. We may identify a problem that will lead to the death of
humanity unless we do something about it.  This is not a sufficient reason
to work on it now.  The problem may not be urgent.  Here are three
examples of vital but not urgent problems.

	a. The next ice age.  According to the now widely accepted
Milankovich theory that ice ages are caused by periodic changes
in the earth's orbit around the sun, we are due for another ice
age in a few thousand years.  Were an ice age to occur now, it would be
disastrous for humanity.  The problem is not urgent, because doing
something to prevent the ice age or adapt to it will be technological,
and we can expect that the technological ability of humanity will be
vastly greater even 100 years from now.

	b. The heat death of the universe.  In the normal course of
events there won't be any solar systems capable of sustaining life
in a few hundred billion years, and it is hard to see how even the
most extreme measures in the most optimistic scenario compatible
with present understanding of physics can sustain life more than
$10↑{60}$ years.  (We won't go into how such an extension might
be accomplished in this paper).  Very likely humanity is doomed
in the long run, but very likely humanity will take the same
attitude towards its eventual extinction that an individual person
takes towards his own; there's lots to do in the meantime.

	c. The sun will move off the what the astronomers call the
main sequence in a few billion years, and will expand to engulf the
earth.  Humanity will then have to move to other solar systems.
Ideas about how this might be done have only entertainment value
today.

Overpopulation

	It is apparent that a geometrically increasing population
would eventually overwhelm any material resources.  I have computed
that all the sun's energy could not sustain more than $10↑{27}$ people,
and the populations of some countries are increasing at two percent
per year.  If this continues, the energy resources of the solar
system will all be required in somewhat over 3,000 years.  This doesn't
necessarily mean that population is an urgent problem in the U.S.
Countries are sovereign, and there is little we can do or are motivated
to do to make (say) Bangladesh reduce its rate of growth.  However,
Bangladesh will reach its limit long before we do, and its fate will
be a lesson to us.

	We will discuss the time scale of the U.S. population problem
later.  However, the idea that intelligent people should have fewer
children is seriously mistaken.  We need more smart people, and
the notion that a few limiting their population will serve as an
example is mistaken.